Coronavirus Update (3/18/20)

Update as of 7:30 pm ET:

There are currently 9236 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and have been 150 deaths in the U.S.

There have been over 8,000 deaths worldwide.

U.S. national parks are staying open and are waiving entrance fees.

A reprint from CNN: Undetected infections may have driven “rapid dissemination” of coronavirus, modeling shows, by Arman Azad:

Mild, asymptomatic or otherwise unrecognized infections may have driven the rapid spread of the novel coronavirus in the outbreak’s earliest days, according to modeling published Monday in the journal Science.

The research, based on reported cases in China and travel data, estimated that 86% of coronavirus infections in the country were “undocumented” in the weeks before officials instituted stringent quarantines.

Undocumented infections, according to the researchers, can go unrecognized because they come with mild or no symptoms, and that “can expose a far greater portion of the population to virus than would otherwise occur.”

These undetected cases, which are often less severe, were estimated to be about half as contagious as confirmed cases. But because undetected cases were more common, they could have played an outsize role in spreading the virus, the study said.

About 4 in 5 people confirmed to have coronavirus, for example, were likely infected by people who didn’t know they had it, according to the modeling.

“These findings explain the rapid geographic spread of [coronavirus] and indicate containment of this virus will be particularly challenging,” the researchers wrote.

The study, they later added, suggests that “a radical increase in the identification and isolation of currently undocumented infections would be needed to fully control [the virus].”

The takeaway? People who don’t know they have the virus are spreading it to others. You may be infected and not know it, so practice good hygiene and limit exposure to large groups of people.

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